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HATTIESBURG, Miss. — With polls closed in the Republican Senate primary runoff here, Senator Thad Cochran’s campaign on Tuesday evening was left to rely on a strong turnout from traditional black Democrats in his effort to defeat his Tea Party-backed opponent, State Senator Chris McDaniel. But turnout in African-American precincts appeared to be low, and McDaniel supporters were optimistic.
The hard feelings generated by the race were also in evidence, with both conservative groups and the N.A.A.C.P. sending out poll watchers to look for what they considered to be fraud or intimidation. The United States Justice Department also said that it was “aware of concerns about voter intimidation and is monitoring the situation.â€
In downtown Hattiesburg, Miss., a trickle of Democratic voters filtered out of the Court Street United Methodist Church on Tuesday afternoon, saying they had voted for a Republican for the first time in their lives — and all of them had voted for Mr. Cochran.
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Heath Kleinke, 38, held his 4-month-old baby in his arms and said he wanted her to get a good education in Mississippi, something he believed would be impossible if Mr. McDaniel made good on his proposal to cut federal funding. “The fact that he openly criticizes Thad Cochran for talking to Democrats riled me up,†Mr. Kleinke added.
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Senator Thad Cochran campaigned in Ocean Springs, Miss., on Tuesday. Credit Edmund D. Fountain for The New York Times
But McDaniel supporters in Hattiesburg were seeing their own surge. Poll workers at a Masonic Temple here said they were on pace to double turnout from June 3. And outside, many of those voters were ready to vote for Mr. McDaniel.
“Thad, we’ve always voted for him, always supported him, but we just felt like his time is over,†said Voncile Ratcliff, 84. “It bothers me some to have someone up there who doesn’t have as much pull, but me and my husband, we don’t like the pork barrel spending either.â€
The McDaniel campaign’s confidence was reflected in its Twitter feed, where Donald Trump, the pundit Mark Levin and the economist and conservative television host Larry Kudlow sent in messages of support.
Mr. McDaniel himself lashed out at the establishment Republicans who have been solidly behind Mr. Cochran, especially the family dynasty led by former Gov. Haley Barbour. “This Senate seat does not belong to Haley Barbour,†Mr. McDaniel said in a Twitter message. “It belongs to the people of Mississippi!â€
“The permanent political class is lashing out with scare tactics and fear mongering because their grasp on power is being threatened,†he said.
Mr. McDaniel narrowly edged Mr. Cochran in the June 3 primary but fell a few thousand votes short of the majority he needed to claim the Senate nomination. If he wins on Tuesday night, he will be the first Senate candidate in Mississippi to defeat an incumbent from his own party since 1942.
Mr. Cochran’s chances may depend on the turnout in Democratic precincts, especially in black precincts, but Democratic Party leaders were encouraging those voters to stay home. Mississippi has no voter registration, and anyone who had not voted in the Democratic primary could vote in the Republican runoff on Tuesday.
Rickey Cole, the chairman of the Mississippi Democratic Party, sent out emails and made phone calls reminding Democrats that they have a runoff in the Third Congressional District, in southeast Mississippi, and encouraged them to stay out of the Republican primary.
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Highlights From the Mississippi Senate Primary Runoff
The Times is on the ground in Mississippi, providing live coverage on the Republican Senate primary runoff between Senator Thad Cochran, a six-term incumbent, and State Senator Chris McDaniel, his Tea Party-backed challenger. Some highlights:
Democratic leaders are encouraging voters to stay away from the Republican primary.
Mr. Cochran is hoping for a lot of first-time Republican voters.
There was relatively light turnout in parts of Jackson, Miss., by the early afternoon.
“In Mississippi, we basically establish what party we’re from based on voting in a primary,†Mr. Cole said, adding, “We’ve reminded our voters that the Republican primary is for Republican voters.â€
Mr. Cole added that, while it was still early, he had not heard of a substantial number of Democrats voting in the Republican primary, but that about 10,000 voters had turned out for the congressional primary. (The winner will face a Republican incumbent.)
The national Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is neither encouraging nor discouraging Democrats from voting in the Republican primary. “We’re letting the Republicans fight it out,†said Justin Barasky, the committee’s national press secretary.
Money has poured into Mississippi from conservative groups supporting Mr. McDaniel like the Senate Conservatives Fund, the Club for Growth and FreedomWorks.
Standing behind Mr. Cochran are the money and muscle of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and every Republican in the Mississippi congressional delegation, as well as the governor and the lieutenant governor. Senator John McCain of Arizona is stumping for Mr. Cochran, but his vice-presidential running mate from 2008, former Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, has thrown in for Mr. McDaniel, blasting the Republican establishment in her broadsides on his behalf.
Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and the onetime game show host Chuck Woolery have also campaigned for Mr. McDaniel, while Brett Favre — the former Super Bowl-winning quarterback, and a Mississippi native — has filmed television commercials backing Mr. Cochran.
Establishment Republicans had hoped to make Mississippi the Tea Party’s Waterloo — their last best chance this year to defeat a big-name Republican incumbent. But with the surprise defeat of Representative Eric Cantor, the House majority leader, in Virginia two weeks ago, many in the Tea Party’s ranks believe the results in Mississippi will lead to other victories.
“They just thought Virginia was a big deal,†Mr. McDaniel told supporters on Monday night. “This, this is a big deal.â€
If Mr. McDaniel prevails in a tide of Tea Party support and anti-incumbent anger, it will end a congressional career that began in 1973. Many Mississippians say they still value their powerful representation in Washington, and if Republicans take control of the Senate in November, Mr. Cochran would lead the Senate Appropriations Committee.
“Someone sort of put it to me this way, and I think this is true: If you send Senator Cochran back to Washington, you send someone who has the potential to be in charge of the nation’s checkbook, basically, and who has a great deal of favor with his colleagues and who has a great reputation as a statesman as opposed to someone who has no experience really whatsoever,†said Rachel Waide, 37, a lawyer in Tupelo, Miss.
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